Europe shows love for Barack Obama -
On his first outing this week as the Democratic nominee-elect, Mr Obama chose to deliver an uncompromising message to Iran,
If Barack Obama was taking on John McCain in a global election he would already be on his way to the White House.
A recent worldwide poll showed him beating the Republican by more than three to one. In Europe, his margin of victory would be even greater: Mr McCain would get only 6 per cent of the vote in Germany, where a government spokesman has waxed publicly about the attraction of Mr Obama's “mixture of Martin Luther King and John F. Kennedy”.
Just about the whole of France is backing Mr Obama. He is, in the words of Jack Lang, the former Socialist Culture Minister, “the America we love ... the youth and racial mix of an America under transformation and in movement”.
As waves of euphoria swept across the Atlantic this week after Mr Obama's victory in the Democratic primary, a message on the “Brits for Barack” Facebook group declared: “We did it!” However, in reality, it is not up to them to do it. Mr Obama won the tightest nomination fight in living memory despite the concerns of many Democratic voters about his credentials as a prospective commander-in-chief.
One of Hillary Clinton's most effective television adverts showed children sleeping while a telephone rings at 3am in the White House. “Something's happening in the world,” an ominous voice intoned. “Who do you want answering the phone?”
In November's general election, Mr Obama needs the support of people who wanted Mrs Clinton to take that call - and probably to win over some of those who voted for President Bush four years ago.
American public opinion has shifted to the left since 2004, but no one is kidding themselves that the US electorate resembles that of Western Europe. One of Mr McCain's strategists summed up how they planned to attack Mr Obama in three words: “Naive. Inexperienced. Weak.”
So it was significant that, on his first outing this week as the Democratic nominee-elect, Mr Obama chose to deliver an uncompromising message to Iran, telling a pro-Israel audience that he would deploy every aspect of American power, including military force, to stop Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons. Even as President Ahmadinejad of Iran talks optimistically about the next man to occupy the White House offering a “new approach” to relations with his country, Mr Obama has been steadily drawing back from earlier promises to hold talks without pre-conditions in his first year in office. There would have to be “preparations”, he says, and he may not meet Mr Ahmadinejad.
George Galloway, the British MP whose views on the Middle East are regarded as bordering on insane in Washington, told a pro-Hamas television station last month that “I pray for the safety of Barack Obama - and I pray that he can shift the United States attitude” on the Palestinian issue. Mr Obama was swift to sever links with an adviser last month who admitted that he had spoken to Hamas.
When European officials talk to Mr Obama's advisers about his foreign policy, they are told that the rest of the world must do more to help America secure a military victory in Afghanistan. If they ask whether he really means to renegotiate free-trade deals, the reply is bluntly in the affirmative.
A planned trip by Mr Obama to Europe last summer was cancelled partly because his campaign team was concerned that the prospect of adoring crowds filled with “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” may not play too well in Iowa.
Europe will be able to make common cause with Mr Obama in a way that they have not with Mr Bush. His agenda would include tackling climate change, closing the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and using international institutions. However, even on Iraq, where Mr Obama's promise to withdraw troops would appear to be in line with the policy pursued by allies such as Britain, there may be trouble ahead.
Derek Chollet, a Democratic foreign policy expert and the author of America Between the Wars, said: “Europe is only just beginning to consider what Obama means when he calls for a ‘diplomatic surge' to accompany military disengagement. There is still a sense at the highest levels of government that Iraq is America's problem - and that would change very quickly.”
It has been difficult for world leaders such as Gordon Brown to be seen as being too close to Mr Bush. Mr Chollet said that the election of Mr Obama would give them “someone they can work with”, but he added: “There is an expectation management problem for all European governments. I think they are becoming aware of that.”
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