Winter weather forecast looks as unstable as markets, says Environment Canada

By Gregory Bonnell, The Canadian Press

TORONTO - The instability plaguing financial markets seems to have spilled over into the environment, making the winter forecast from Environment Canada a crapshoot of sorts, one of this country's top weather gurus said Monday.

And with the markets and federal political scene on a wild ride, senior climatologist David Phillips said Canadians are, for the first time in his career, more preoccupied with Ottawa and Bay Street than what's falling out of the sky.

"I mean, my gosh, it seems to be politics right now or at least the economy, and weather's taken the back seat," he said. "In this country, I never, ever thought I'd see that."

While the three-month forecast released Monday predicts colder than normal temperatures through February for large swaths of the country and less snow than last year, Phillips warns that prognostication is susceptible to wild, market-like gyrations.

"Quite frankly, I've seen this forecast over the last month and it's all over the place, like the economy," Phillips said.

"It's hard to figure out. There's no certainty, there doesn't seem to be a stable pattern."

The forecast calls for colder than usual temperatures for northern Ontario, a "good chunk" of the eastern Prairies and British Columbia.

Southern and central Ontario, most of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan will see "near normal conditions."

Quebec, starting in the Eastern Townships, and most of Atlantic Canada will experience "warmer than normal" weather.

That's the prediction, but the indicators Environment Canada climatologists usually look to, like ocean temperatures, are "up and down."

This year there is no El Nino or La Nina - ocean-atmosphere phenomena in the Pacific Ocean that influence global weather patterns.

"In terms of how the oceans go, so goes our seasonal weather, and it just seems to me that there is no Pacific influence," he said.

"Quite frankly, I'm reduced to saying whether the winter's going to come from Siberia or Sarasota, we don't know. It could come from both. It's just a real mixed bag."

Like hedge funds speculating on the futures market, climatologists still have to take a stab at what's to come.

When it comes to snow, Phillips admits that's a hard one to nail down, but he predicts less of the white stuff for parts of Canada hardest hit last year by record snowfalls.

"Of course for most eastern Canadians the issue is: are we going to see as much snow as last year?" Phillips said.

"There's just no way we're going to see as much snow as last year, even though we're calling for precipitation in December, January and February as being wetter than normal."