OTTAWA - Many senior Grits are privately predicting Liberal Leader Stephane Dion will be forced to quit within the next few weeks if he doesn't voluntarily resign first.
And they expect the next leadership contest to be held in Vancouver, most likely in May.
With Dion at the helm for his first election, the Liberals appeared headed Tuesday to their second worst defeat in history, bleeding votes to the Conservatives on their right and the NDP and Greens on their left.
"This is an epic disaster," said one senior Liberal as the dismal results poured in.
"Everybody's up except us. They're just picking at our bones."
There's no question Dion must go, the Liberal said.
"Absolutely - and fast."
Publicly, there were few words of praise for Dion.
Toronto MP Jim Karygiannis won re-election easily but credited the strength of his local organization.
"Certainly the leadership of the party did not do anything to help," he said in an interview.
Dion asserted during the dying days of the campaign that he would "never quit." And in his concession speech late Tuesday, Dion gave no hint that he's thinking about stepping aside.
"I love my country more than ever. Canadians asked me to be the opposition leader and I accept this responsibility with honour," he said.
But Liberals privately point to some hard realities that Dion will have to face if he's tempted to try to hang on.
-He will have to survive an automatic vote of confidence in his leadership at the party's next convention, which has been booked for May in Vancouver. All party members can pass judgment on his leadership, making the outcome much harder to control.
- Dion does not have enough loyal support within the party to win the 50 per cent plus one he'd need to technically win the confidence vote, much less the 70-per-cent range he'd need to carry on as leader.
-He was the first choice of fewer than 18 per cent of party rank and file during the 2006 contest.
-He has even less core support within his fractious caucus. Only a handful of Liberal MPs and senators backed Dion's leadership bid; Ignatieff scooped up the lion's share.
Dion has already suffered through two years of whisper campaigns and leaks from caucus, but many senior Liberals predict those machinations will erupt into an open revolt if Dion doesn't quickly resign.
If not, senior Grits argue Dion needs to recognize the party simply can't afford a protracted soap opera over his tenuous grip on the leadership.
Refusing to go voluntarily would also force the cash-strapped party to stage one costly convention to settle Dion's fate and a second to choose a successor.
Dion does have his defenders, however, who contend he deserves another shot at the brass ring.
"He does deserve a second chance and he should stay around now," said Garth Turner, who lost his bid for re-election in Ontario's Halton riding.
Most contenders from the 2006 contest, including Dion and Ignatieff, are still trying to pay off their debts, drawing off donations that might otherwise go to the party's depleted coffers, Dion supporters note. Plunging into a new contest would only exacerbate the party's money woes.
Moreover, they point out that the party is still riven by factions from the last contest and has never entirely healed the wounds left by a decade of leadership feuding between Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.
Leaders who've lost an election have often learned from that experience and come back to win the next one, they note, citing Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, who lost in 1999 but redeemed himself four years later.
Liberal strategist Rob Silver said Tuesday's results reflect problems that won't be readily solved by simply getting rid of the leader.
"Of the top 10 problems facing the Liberal party going forward, who the leader is is not in the top five," Silver said.
"A leadership race right now only benefits one person: (Prime Minister) Stephen Harper."
If Dion does step aside, Liberal insiders predict the scheduled May policy convention in Vancouver will become a leadership convention.
If there is a leadership contest, most Liberals expect it will turn into a head-to-head rematch between Ignatieff and Rae, one-time university roommates.
During the day Tuesday, Ignatieff phoned Liberal candidates to wish them luck, prompting some Grits to remark that the leadership contest had begun before the first ballot had been counted.
After the results came in, both Ignatieff and Rae were careful to profess loyalty to Dion.
Ignatieff, who has served as Dion's deputy, said the party has suffered a "serious defeat" but that Dion can't be held solely responsible.
"When a party suffers a defeat, you go back to basics, you look at everything - platform, organization, money, and leadership in the wider sense of the word," he told reporters in his Toronto riding.
"I'm part of the leadership of this party. I can't walk around claiming I had no responsibility. I have to take my responsibility like everybody else. To make Mr. Dion the scapegoat here seems to me a little easy. We've got to look honestly at why our message didn't work with Canadians and honestly address it."
For his part, Rae said: "Mr. Dion is my leader and that's the only place I want to be right now."
Both Rae and Ignatieff are in their early sixties and some Liberals who are looking for a new generation of leadership are touting young bucks like New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc and Justin Trudeau, the son of late Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau, as possible contenders.
Montreal MP Denis Coderre might also be tempted to jump into the ring. Gerard Kennedy, the kingmaker who secured the leadership for Dion, might also be tempted to take a second shot at the top job, having finally secured a seat in the Commons.
Dion ran a disorganized campaign with an unpopular plan to impose a carbon tax - offset by income tax cuts - as his signature policy plank. The so-called Green Shift proved a tough sell and presented Dion's opponents with a juicy target.
Dion's halting English and professorial demeanour didn't help him communicate his complicated plan.
Liberal insiders say Dion also drove his campaign team to distraction, attempting to micro-manage minute details and ignoring advice.
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